Opinion: How pro-business Republicans see an impending 'calamity' in November elections

From the editor: Our general policy is to consider using anonymous sources when there’s significant value in the information they have to share, and when they face significant risk if their identity is exposed.

In this case, we think that this piece, submitted by an anonymous natural resource industry executive, provides valuable insights into the way Alaska’s business community is looking at this year’s election — insights that we wouldn’t otherwise have access to. Let us know if you have concerns or questions: editor@anchoragepress.com.

Say what you want about Republican Mike Dunleavy, Alaska’s governor for the past four years. I didn’t always agree with him. He picked some annoying social issues to take stands on, and he was obsessed with the Permanent Fund dividend.

But the guy was a great backstop to block bad ideas from the Legislature that would have hurt Alaska businesses. And now, it looks like we’re in for a big change.

A Democrat from Southeast Alaska, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, is likely to be our next governor. Both the House and Senate look like they’re going to be led by mostly Democratic coalitions.  

Which means: Tax increases are definitely on the table, with the oil industry on the chopping block. Calamity is the word many of the people in my conservative-leaning, pro-business world would use. Folks are already talking about how they’re going to try to protect themselves in Juneau; lobbyists who have good relationships with Democratic legislators are going to be in demand. 

I want all Alaskans to know how people in the resource industries see this. And how annoyed I am at the Alaska Republican Party’s inability to develop a coherent strategy for the governor’s race, to recruit viable legislative candidates and to stand up a get-out-the-vote effort to help save U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan. 

So, I’m writing this op-ed. It has to be anonymous, though — our companies don’t want the exposure or political risk that comes with speaking publicly, and official messaging would have to be formally approved and sanitized.

I can also offer some insight into why JKT is likely to win.

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For one thing, everyone knows many conservatives aren’t going to rank all three GOP gubernatorial candidates, so votes are going to be wasted. But also, some of us can’t really get behind any of the Republicans — myself included.

I don’t care much about the social stuff, and I think if you’re out there promising a full Permanent Fund dividend, you can’t do basic algebra. So, I don’t have a home with Bernadette Wilson. Dave Bronson is a nice guy, and I respect his military service, but his time as mayor of Anchorage failed the governance test. Treg Taylor seems like a pro-business, relatively reasonable guy, but he’s also coming from fifth place in the primary and doesn’t seem to be moving the needle.

Jonathan makes me uneasy. He’s from Southeast Alaska, where people often take for granted the oil industry’s contribution to the state economy, and the contributions of other non-fishing resource industries. He and his running mate don’t have kids, and I’m worried that will make it hard for them to appreciate the needs of Alaska families. And while he seems like a pretty sincere guy, and has picked up some business experience since leaving state House, he hasn’t been through the pressure cooker, and I don’t know if we can trust what he’s telling us on the campaign trail.

All that said, people have started noticing: He’s not AOC.

First, some of the names we’ve been hearing from his camp as far as possible natural resources commissioners are old hands, not populist cowboys. 

Also, we know Jonathan wants to raise taxes on oil companies structured as S-corps — specifically, on Hilcorp. But he’s also made clear that he thinks the oil industry shouldn’t be the only thing on the menu: He’s said that individual Alaskans should be part of the budget solution, too, likely through a sales or income tax.

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We won’t say this out loud, but yeah: There’s a degree of openness to playing ball with resource industry tax increases if they’re part of broader fiscal reform. Especially if Jonathan follows through on what he’s been telling people, which is that he’d want to pursue taxes only through a careful study process — and with our industries participating.

If things get cooked up in secret and airdropped onto the House or Senate floor at the last second, that’s a recipe for disaster — and while four years is enough time to destabilize an industry, without collaboration, it’s not actually enough time to make lasting improvements. Given some of the Democrats who are likely to be part of the next Senate majority, I’m still worried things get out of hand and lead to bad policies passing unchecked.

I do think the next four years are going to suck for whoever’s in power — so I also wouldn’t be devastated to see the Democrats taking the hits that will come with being in charge. We’ve gotten lucky with oil prices going up and fixing some of the budget problems this year. But they’re not going to stay up forever, and we are all pretty confident that the next governor is going to face a hard reality when it comes to taxes and budget cuts.

And: If we end up handing control of the House, the Senate and the executive branch to the Democrats, hopefully it will light a fire under the Republican Party. It’s so frustrating how disorganized and ineffective they’ve been this year. In addition to the Governor’s race debacle, there are plenty of Democratic legislators running unopposed.

If the sweep happens, I hope it’s a come to Jesus moment.

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